Scenario work

Ultimate goal: Probabilistic prediction of future temperature, starting from now, through the end of the century

• Use FaIR (version 2.1.3, calibrated constrained ensemble fit to observations version 1.4.1) to get probabilistic temperature projections from emissions.

How to get emissions?

• Use historical estimates of emissions from 1750 up until today. A complete set is in the calibrated constrained FaIR code.