5 Chapter 5: The Cost of Climate Change on our Plates: Climate Change Impacts Food Prices and Food Security 

By Yanalthet Rodriguez

Introduction

About 2.4 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity (Murtoff, 2023). Britannica defines food insecurity as “limited or uncertain access to nutritious food, which also includes limitations on the ability to obtain nutritious food in ways that are socially acceptable” (Murtoff, 2023). Food insecurity is a derivative of other global issues such as political unrest, economic disruptions, poverty, and notably, climate change (Murtoff, 2023). Climate change is an increasingly pressing issue. Every year, we see more alarming headlines about destructive natural disasters. The headlines detail persistent wildfires, relentless droughts, devastating floods, and severe hurricanes. We are increasingly bearing witness to the cataclysmic impacts of climate change, yet the ramifications of these impacts are not always evident. Climate change dramatically impacts the environment, but it also has profound socioeconomic implications. One of those socioeconomic implications is the potential for increased food insecurity, especially for low-income households and developing countries. Hence, this chapter aims to examine the effects of climate change on agriculture and decreased food production, its potential for rising costs, and some of its implications for food security.

Climate Change and Agriculture

The varying and extreme weather events caused by climate change have profound effects on the growing conditions of crops due to their dependence on precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture (Bolster et al., 2023). As climate change alters the conditions under which plants need to grow, the impacts on farms will largely depend on the region and type of crop. The impacts caused by climate change will likely be negative, but they can also be beneficial. Moreover, some crops are more vulnerable to changes in temperature (Yuan et al., 2024). For instance, a rise in temperature for soybeans, a crop particularly vulnerable to increases in temperature, can result in profound crop yield loss compared to other heat-resistant crops (USDA Climate Hubs, 2024). Temperature changes can also alter growing seasons, which can have beneficial and detrimental effects. On one side, a longer growing season can allow for more yields, or the opportunity to plant crops that need more time to mature (US EPA, 2025). Conversely, farmers facing water shortages may have to supply more water to maintain them (US EPA, 2025). Similarly, some regions may experience more or less precipitation than others. Although it may seem like more water is better for a plant, it can have adverse effects. A report by the United States Department of Agriculture specifies that an increased amount of precipitation can lead to soil and nutrient loss, disease, damage root growth and function (Walsh et al., 2020), meaning that more precipitation can cause a decrease in yields and less nutrient-dense crops. At the same time, decreased precipitation experienced by other regions will also have harmful effects. Reduced precipitation or drought leads to plant stress, resulting in lower crop yields and overall quality (USDA Climate Hubs, 2022). Notably, perennial crops, such as apples and cherries, take longer to recover from drought or do not recover at all, than annual crops do, such as potatoes and onions (USDA Climate Hubs, 2022). Further illustrating that abnormal weather events driven by climate change have varying effects depending on the location and type of crop. However, most impacts are decreasing crop yields. One study found that under the worst-case scenario, crop yields can decrease as much as 7% to 23% (Rezaei et al., 2023). As discussed, climate change has tremendous effects on agriculture, which affects food production.

Climate Change, Food Production, and Economics

Climate change can decrease crop yields, consequently decreasing food supply and increasing prices. The premise is the simple economic concept of supply and demand; the decrease in food production brings about a leftward shift in the supply curve, decreasing quantity and increasing prices. Many agencies and governments have researched the relationship between climate change, decreasing food production, and rising food prices, since it has serious implications. The European Central Bank and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for example, have published reports on how climate change impacts food supply and its impact on food prices. There have been instances of this already occurring; for example, orange juice prices have increased because of climate-related disruptions in Florida and Brazil, both large producers of oranges (Neelakandan, 2023). Florida’s citrus industry is valued at roughly 6 billion dollars, but the increasing severity of hurricanes poses a threat (Anderson, 2022). Hurricane Ian in 2022 was responsible for disrupting orange production by up to 40%, in turn, causing orange juice prices to surge. The Associated Press interviewed Petteway, a farmer, following the destruction of Hurricane Ian, who expressed that they were devastated because they were expecting a great season (Anderson, 2022). The Sixth IPCC Chapter 11 Report indicates “It is likely that the global proportion of Category 3–5 tropical cyclone instances has increased over the past four decades” (Seneviratne et al., 2021) The increasing severity of tropical storms has already begun to increase prices for food products such as orange juice, and its likely that the intensity of these storms will grow more severe as temperatures rise (Seneviratne et al., 2021).

Meanwhile, Brazil, a top orange producer, has also decreased production due to extreme weather conditions such as drought and flooding (Durbin & Pollastri, 2024). Furthermore, the Sixth IPCC Chapter 11 Report asserts, “Several regions will be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts even if global warming is stabilised at 2°C” (Seneviratne et al., 2021). It can be inferred that with more regions impacted by droughts, they may experience decreased production, like Brazil.

Extreme weather events in Brazil and Florida, top producers of oranges, dramatically decreased orange outputs and caused orange juice prices to increase by 42% in the United States (Durbin & Pollastri, 2024). However, orange juice is not the only good that is rising in price due to an increase in severe weather patterns; other crops projected to increase in price are corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice (Bolster et al., 2023). More specifically, rice, the most consumed food globally, is expected to rise by 3.1% because of a  61% decrease in output (Bolster et al., 2023). A study found that temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures (Mukherjee & Ouattara, 2021). As mentioned, temperatures are expected to rise in the future, meaning prices will likely increase with the growing impact of climate change. In fact, the European Central Bank found that warmer summers correlate to higher inflation levels, on both food and non-food items (Faccia et al., 2021). It is important to note that rising food prices signify a serious socioeconomic challenge.

Impacts of Rising Food Costs on Food Security

One of the barriers to food security is cost, and rising inflation due to climate change will only exacerbate this pressing issue. According to the USDA Economic Research Service,  food insecurity in the U.S. has been increasing since 2021, as illustrated by the graph below (Rabbitt et al., 2024).

Between 2022 and 2023, one million more Americans became food insecure (Rabbitt et al., 2024). This means that fewer people have “access to enough food at all times for an active, healthy life” as defined by the USDA (Rabbitt et al., 2024). But what is behind this increase in food insecurity? It is difficult to find the exact cause for this recent rise in food insecurity, but it may be due to increased inflation. Another study conducted by the USDA discovered two critical data points. One was that “an increase of 1 percentage point in annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), was associated with a 0.5-percentage-point increase in the prevalence of food insecurity” (Nord, 2014).  The other was that “an increase of 1 percent in the annual relative price of food (i.e., the ratio of food price to the price of all goods and services) was associated with a 0.6-percentage-point increase in the prevalence of food insecurity” (Nord, 2014). Demonstrating that an increase in inflation or prices is correlated with an increase in food insecurity. The findings above correspond to the idea that cost is a barrier to food security because households with less income have less purchasing power when food costs rise. Purchasing power is defined as the amount of goods or services a consumer can afford to buy.

In contrast to a household with a higher income, an increase in food prices would not have as much impact. In other words, households with lower income have to spend a larger percentage of their income on food than those with higher incomes, so when the price of food rises, the percentage of income they spend on food also increases. For instance, in 2023, higher-income households spent 8.1% of their income on food, while lower-income households spent 32.6% on food (Sweitzer & Davidenko, 2024). The share of income spent on food is larger in developing countries than in developed countries. In Nigeria, households can spend up to 60% of their income on at-home food spending. (Valdes, 2025) This has significant implications for the rising food prices caused by climate change. Households with lower incomes and developing countries are more affected by the rise in food prices. Subsequently, as climate change worsens food inflation, they can become more vulnerable to food insecurity.

Conclusion

While climate change can manifest through an increase or decrease in precipitation and temperatures, the effects on agriculture are the same: a reduction of crop yields. For instance, Florida experienced severe hurricanes, and Brazil experienced droughts, but both resulted in decreased orange production. This reduction in orange output put a strain on the supply, which increased the price of orange juice. In the future, we are more likely to experience the consequences of climate change through severe weather patterns. These severe weather patterns can decrease crop yields and food supply and increase prices. A primary cause of food insecurity is cost, so as prices increase due to climate change, it has the potential to increase food insecurity. The price increase is also more pronounced for low-income households and developing countries that spend a larger portion of their income on food.

Several avenues of research exist on the correlation between climate change and the potential for increased food insecurity. For example, rising food prices uniquely impact farmer-owners and agricultural workers in developed and developing countries, as they lose income due to decreased yields. Developing countries would likely be more impacted because, in some developing countries, agriculture is responsible for more than 25% of GDP (Root, 2024). Another area of research is the need for trade as the comparative advantage of crops shifts due to climate change (Palazzo et al., 2010), along with the implications of a growing trade war. Trade is needed for producers and consumers to adapt to climate change’s economic impacts (Palazzo et al., 2010). A final area of research is the role that institutionalized discriminatory practices by the government have on the disproportionate effects of climate change and food insecurity on developing countries, low-income communities, and people of color.

References

Anderson, C. (2022, October 15). After Hurricane Ian, Florida citrus and agriculture struggle. AP News.https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-florida-storms-business-agriculture-e9fffa154a96b78d0d042aca68f1c042

Bolster, C. H., Mitchell, R., Kitts, A., Campbell, A., Cosh, M., Farrigan, T. L., Franzluebbers, A. J., Hoover, D. L., Jin, V. L., Peck, D. E., Schmer, M. R., & Smith, M. D. (2023). Agriculture, food systems, and rural communities (A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock, Eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH11

Durbin , D., & Pollastri, T. (2024, June 14). High orange juice prices may be on the table for a while due to disease and extreme weather. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/orange-juice-prices-brazil-florida-disease-8a8f97573d9c26ab44a62c6a0228686e

Faccia, D., Parker, M., & Stracca, L. (2021). Feeling the Heat: Extreme Temperatures and Price Stability. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3981219

Mukherjee, K., & Ouattara, B. (2021). Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures? Climatic Change, 167(3-4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03149-2

Murtoff, J. (2023, September 7). Food insecurity | Description, Causes, & Facts | Britannica. Www.britannica.com. https://www.britannica.com/topic/food-insecurity

Neelakandan, L. (2023, September 27). Shoppers face higher orange juice prices as futures hit another record. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/orange-juice-futures-reach-record-high.html

Nord, M., United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service, issuing body, Coleman-Jensen, A., & Gregory, C. A. (2014). Prevalence of U.S. food insecurity is related to changes in unemployment, inflation, and the price of food. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Palazzo, A., Ingersoll, C., Gray, I., You, L., Msangi, S., Sulser, T. B., Ringler, C., Rosegrant, M. W., Tokgoz, S., Zhu, T., Robertson, R. D., & Nelson, G. C. (2010). Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options.

Rabbitt, M.P., Reed-Jones, M., Hales, L.J., & Burke, M.P. (2024). Household food security in the United States in 2023 (Report No. ERR-337). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Rezaei, E. E., Webber, H., Asseng, S., Boote, K., Durand, J. L., Ewert, F., Martre, P., & MacCarthy, D. S. (2023). Climate change impacts on crop yields. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4(12), 831–846. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017023004910

Root, J. (2024, June 16). How much of the world depends on agriculture? – Geographic FAQ Hub: Answers to Your Global Questions. Geographic FAQ Hub: Answers to Your Global Questions. https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/how-much-of-the-world-depends-on-agriculture/

Seneviratne, S.I., X. Zhang, M. Adnan, W. Badi, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, S. Ghosh, I. Iskandar, J. Kossin, S. Lewis, F. Otto, I. Pinto, M. Satoh, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, M. Wehner, and B. Zhou, 2021: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I  to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1513–1766, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.013.

Sweitzer, M., & Davidenko, V. (2024). Food spending as a share of income declines as income rises. USDA. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending?topicId=3c3d8d77-83ee-40a7-8947-49ad885571fa

US EPA. (2025, February 6). Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply. Www.epa.gov. https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply

USDA Climate Hubs. (2022). Drought and Northwest Agriculture in a Changing Climate | USDA Climate Hubs. Usda.gov. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/drought-and-northwest-agriculture-changing-climate

USDA Climate Hubs. (2024). Warmer Isn’t Always Better: How Rising Temperatures Impact Crop Production | USDA Climate Hubs. Usda.gov. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northeast/topic/warmer-isnt-always-better-how-rising-temperatures-impact-crop-production

Valdes, C. (2025). Globally, calorie availability and the prominence of food in household spending are inversely related. USDA. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending?topicId=3c3d8d77-83ee-40a7-8947-49ad885571fa

Walsh, M. K., Backlund, P. W., Buja, L., DeGaetano, A., Melnick, R., Prokopy, L., Takle, E., Todey, D., & Ziska, L. (2020). Climate indicators for agriculture. Mountainscholar.org. https://doi.org/10.25675/10217/210930

Yuan, X., Li, S., Chen, J., Yu, H., Yang, T., Wang, C., Huang, S., Chen, H., & Ao, X. (2024). Impacts of Global Climate Change on Agricultural Production: A Comprehensive Review. Agronomy, 14(7), 1360. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071360